Container sector’s optimism is misguided, says Drewry

According to Drewry Shipping Consultants' latest Container Forecaster analysis, the container industry will continue to be burdened with unsustainable freight rates unless it discards its market share mind-set.

Capacity changes and vessel lay-ups are not enough to counteract the global recession, and the industry remains in serious trouble. The bad news for the container shippers is that there is no good news. The glimmers of hope peddled by some industry leaders are nothing more than wishful thinking.

According to Drewry's latest analysis, there will be a 10.3% contraction for containers by end-2009, followed by a mere 1% growth next year.

For one of the most competitive trade routes - Asia-Europe, three years of demand growth have been wiped out.

Drewry predicts that global container handling in 2009 will be 27 million TEU less than 2007, which is also bad news for the port investment sector.

Neil Dekker, editor of the Container Forecaster, commented: "While our numbers are estimates, e.g. the price of oil for the rest of 2009 is not easy to forecast, our analysis shows that the container sector is looking at a $20 billion black hole."

He added that Drewry believes that the basic make-up of the industry will change as companies go belly up, amalgamate or shrink - shedding assets and personnel in the process. The reality is that few, if any, of the actions carried out by the carriers to move away from the current abyss make sense

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